Why it always escalates

Escalation of violence is something nobody ever wants. For everyone involved, including the perpetrator, it is a very unfavourable development. That’s why it is unforeseeable until the very last moment for an unschooled onlooker: for sure, he wouldn’t do this, why would someone undermine their own position like that. However, do not mistake violent behaviour for an impulsive outburst. Recent studies show, that agression doesn’t come from poor self-control, it is rather quite deliberate and requires self-discipline and calculation. It is instrumental, even though in the long term, the cost of it is always higher, than the short-term gains. However, the strategy of violence works out, if the other side loses even more, and faster, than the perpetrator.

Violence is instrumental. It is the way to make someone do something they wouldn’t otherwise do. So, to predict an escalation you need two factors: first, the victim still has something the abuser needs. Second, last time the abuser employed violence or threats, it got them what they wanted. Since we are dealing with a negative sum game, the resources in this system become more and more scarce, and thus more precious. Hence, the victim becomes more resistant, while the need of the abuser is growing. At this point, the abuser is sincere when they say they had no other choice. And, if the victim calculates the cost of resisting against what the abuser demands - the choice to give in might appear rational. Unless you account for the next iteration (or two) of this cycle. Giving the wallet to a random mugger with a gun on the street is smart. Giving money to your neighbour, because he threatens to burn down your house, is stupid, because he’ll come again. And at some point you will not believe an empty threat, so he’ll bring a jerry can to your door. At no point the neighbour actually wanted to burn down your house, it’s just that you got used to the smell of gasoline. So he had to light up a match, and show it to you, just to make you believe that he is crazy enough to actually do it. And then, honestly, it was just an accident.

So, what I’m getting at: when the violence or threats are coming from someone in your community, especially an authority figure, confront them as early as you can. The best time to do it is before it is aimed at you. Getting into this mess can look unpleasant and scary, but it will definitely cost you way more down the line.They might not be robbing you, specifically, of anything material just yet - but if you let this slide, you’ll lose the one thing that can actually protect you - a community that can defend itself from abuse. A place where those kinds of things aren’t done to people. This is something worth fighting for.